The Syrian civil war, now in its 13th year, has re-emerged in the global spotlight with a surprise Syrian opposition offensive on Aleppo, one of the country’s largest cities and an ancient economic hub. This offensive marks one of the most significant opposition advances in years, in a conflict that has profoundly destabilised not only Syria but the wider region. The attack on Aleppo is the first by opposition forces since 2016 when Russian airstrikes enabled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to retake the city. Support from Russia, Iran, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and other allied groups has allowed Assad to maintain control over approximately 70% of Syria.

This resurgence of violence has heightened fears of another major front reopening in the Middle East, coinciding with ongoing tensions involving US-backed Israel in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Analysts point to recent Israeli strikes on Syrian and Hezbollah targets, coupled with a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, as factors enabling Syrian opposition to regroup and launch their offensive. The situation underscores the fragile balance in a region where multiple state and non-state actors pursue competing agendas.

Aleppo’s renewed significance stems from its history and strategic importance. The city, once home to 2.3 million people, became a symbol of armed opposition to Assad’s regime when rebels seized its eastern districts in 2012. However, by 2016, a devastating siege supported by relentless Russian bombardment forced the opposition to surrender. Since then, Aleppo has remained under government control, but the recent fighting suggests the potential for a dramatic shift in territorial dynamics.

The opposition forces leading the current assault, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have a contentious history. Designated as a terrorist organisation by both the US and the UN, HTS emerged from Al-Qaeda’s Syria branch under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Golani. Despite Golani’s efforts to distance himself from his extremist past—renouncing Al-Qaeda ties, dismantling religious police, and permitting Christian worship—HTS remains a polarising force within Syria’s opposition.